Wednesday, 25 December 2013

N. China Nexus, Agriculture-Climate change - Part 2


My previous post revealed the uneven distribution of water within China, and the possible effects of climate change on water availability and by extension agriculture in China.  Examples of the possible impacts of climate change on agriculture in China are as follows.

Firstly, increase in temperatures may allow for positive impacts such as expansion of cultivatable land into territory that was previously infertile, allowing for increased crop yield and productivity.  This has been experienced in Northern China where data from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics suggest that warming has already facilitated significant northward expansion of rice planting in Heilongjiang Province (the northernmost region of China) from 0.22 Mha in the early 1980s to 2.25 Mha in 2007equating to a northward shift from of ~4° (~48 °N to ~52 °N). 

Conversely, negative impacts associated with increased temperature are those such as  increased number of pests and disease, which place added stress on crops. For example, the cropland area exposed to diseases and pest infestations rose radically from ~100 Mha in the early 1970s to ~345 Mha in the mid-2000s.  Subsequently annual grain harvest loss due to pests and diseases saw an increase of 2.7% between 1970 and 2000.

It is clear there is evidence that climate change will influence agriculture in northern china.  Nevertheless, research in to whether these affects are positive or negative is plagued with uncertainty.  Though there is uncertainty, it is evident that whatever the outcomes of global warming, strategic counter-measures need to be undertaken in order to solve the groundwater crisis, garuantee the sustainable development of agriculture and ultimately secure a safe food supply for a population of 1.6 billion
References-

S. Piao, P. Ciais, Y. Huang, Z. Shen, S. Peng, J. Li, L. Zhou, H. Liu, Y. Ma, Y. Ding, P. Friedlingstein, C. Liu, K. Tan, Y. Yu, T. Zhang & J. Fang. (2010). The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature. 467 (2), 45.

G. Yengoh . (2013). Climate and Food Production: Understanding Vulnerability from Past Trends in Africa’s Sudan-Sahel. sustainability.

Editorial board. China’s National Assessment of Report on Climate Change 

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