N. China Nexus, Agriculture-Climate change - Part 2

My previous post revealed the uneven distribution of water within China, and the possible effects of climate change on water availability and by extension agriculture in China.  Examples of the possible impacts of climate change on agriculture in China are as follows.

Firstly, increase in temperatures may allow for positive impacts such as expansion of cultivatable land into territory that was previously infertile, allowing for increased crop yield and productivity.  This has been experienced in Northern China where data from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics suggest that warming has already facilitated significant northward expansion of rice planting in Heilongjiang Province (the northernmost region of China) from 0.22 Mha in the early 1980s to 2.25 Mha in 2007equating to a northward shift from of ~4° (~48 °N to ~52 °N). 

Conversely, negative impacts associated with increased temperature are those such as  increased number of pests and disease, which place added stress on crops. For example, the cropland area exposed to diseases and pest infestations rose radically from ~100 Mha in the early 1970s to ~345 Mha in the mid-2000s.  Subsequently annual grain harvest loss due to pests and diseases saw an increase of 2.7% between 1970 and 2000.

It is clear there is evidence that climate change will influence agriculture in northern china.  Nevertheless, research in to whether these affects are positive or negative is plagued with uncertainty.  Though there is uncertainty, it is evident that whatever the outcomes of global warming, strategic counter-measures need to be undertaken in order to solve the groundwater crisis, garuantee the sustainable development of agriculture and ultimately secure a safe food supply for a population of 1.6 billion

References-

S. Piao, P. Ciais, Y. Huang, Z. Shen, S. Peng, J. Li, L. Zhou, H. Liu, Y. Ma, Y. Ding, P. Friedlingstein, C. Liu, K. Tan, Y. Yu, T. Zhang & J. Fang. (2010). The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature. 467 (2), 45.

G. Yengoh . (2013). Climate and Food Production: Understanding Vulnerability from Past Trends in Africa’s Sudan-Sahel. sustainability.

Editorial board. China’s National Assessment of Report on Climate Change 

N. China Nexus, Agriculture-Climate change - Part 1

Agriculture is a vital industry in China, employing over 300 million farmers.  China ranks first worldwide for agricultural output, primarily producing rice, wheat, potatoes, sorghum, peanuts, tea, millet, barley, cotton, oilseed, pork, and fish. Although accounting for only 7% of the world’s arable lands agriculture in China feeds some 22% of the global population.

The northern China plain is one of china’s chief wheat-producing regions, a region where it has been discovered the water table is dropping at a shocking rate of ~1 m/yr! This disturbing fact is thought primarily to be a result of agriculture, and inefficient water drainage. 

This figure taken from S. Piao et al., 2010 shows an uneven spatial distribution of water resources between the water-abundant-south and the far drier north.  Water resources that lie in Transitional regions in between the two, could be affected either positively or negatively by climate change. Thereby having a knock-on impact on agriculture in those regions.

My next post will look into examples of the possible impacts of climate change on agriculture in China both positive and negative, and why there is so much uncertainty.

Sahel Strife, a result of climate change?

One of the most well known examples of the link between climate-change and conflict has become land-use conflict in the Sahel.  Numerous predictions of climate variation within the Sahel region say there will be increasingly drier conditions and more inconsistent rainfall.  Consequently, it has been said that an increase in violent conflicts over limited resources should also be anticipated.

An article by Benjaminsen, et al. (2012) investigates the climate–conflict link in detail, focusing on a region at the heart of the Sahel, the inland delta of the Niger River in the Mopti region of Mali. Here, comparisons are drawn between court data on land-use conflicts, 1992–2009, from the regional Court of Appeal in Mopti and a qualitative analysis of one of the many land-use conflicts in the region.

Benjaminsesn et al, argues the three chief drivers behind these conflicts are as follows:

• ·      Agricultural encroachment that obstructed the mobility of herders and livestock.
• ·      Opportunistic behavior of rural actors as a consequence of an increasing political vacuum.
• ·      Corruption and rent seeking among government officials.

Notably, there is a dearth of evidence that supports the concept that water scarcity and rapid environmental change are significant triggers of conflicts in the Sahel. On analyses of the statistical comparison of temporal variations in rainfall and land-use disputes little intersection was seen.  Furthermore, civil cases, which are arguably less sensitive to climatic variations, followed the same fluctuating pattern as land disputes.

Thus, what is seen is interpreted as evidence that land-use conflicts in the delta region are driven more so by political and economic contexts as opposed to climate variability.

References-

T. Benjaminsen, K. Alinon, H. Buhaug and J. Buseth. (2012). Does climate change drive land-use conflicts in the Sahel.

G. Yengoh. (2013).  Climate and Food Production: Understanding Vulnerability from Past Trends in Africa’s Sudan-Sahel

Conflict-agriculture-food security

Here is an interesting article that discusses the effects of conflict on agriculture, focussing on several different aspects such as losses resulting from conflict in developed countries, sub-saharan africa and comparisons between the impacts on mechanised versus subsistence agriculture.

Africa Adapts

Sub-Saharan Africa is considered to be especially vulnerable to the affects of climate change, with the indigenous tribes of this region being particularly defenseless.  The complete dependence on agricultural production, limited adaptive capacity and comparatively poor health outcomes exhibited here place these communities at the greatest risk.

A paper by Schlenker and Lobell, 2010 suggests that staple crops such as maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut and cassava are expected to decrease in yield by somewhere between 8% and 22% by 2050 if the median temperature of Africa rises between the expected amount of 3°C to 4°C!  These consequences are somewhat exacerbated in countries such as Kenya, where the poverty rate is at a staggering 52% and 73% of the labor force relies on agricultural production for their livelihood.

On national scales strategies such as irrigation systems, disaster relief, insurance and cohesive policies to reduce livelihood risks should be adopted.  However, considering the current political instability of Africa, relying on near future implementation of policies such as these would not be wise. Adjustments at the farm household and community scale is a more reasonable and achievable approach, where significant improvements can be made in order to help communities to adapt to climate change.

Actual perception of climate change within these communities may be a much larger factor than previously thought.  Do farmers think it necessary to adapt? The behavior of farmers’ depends more on their perceptions of climate change and climate risk, rather than climate patterns as measured by scientific methods.

A household survey conducted in 2011 indicated that that farmers adopted a range of practices in response to perceived climate change. The most common responses included changing crop variety (33 %), changing planting dates (20 %), and changing crop type (18 %). Other responses included planting trees (9 %), decreasing the number of livestock (7 %), diversifying, changing, or supplementing livestock feeds (7 %), changing fertilizer application (7 %), and soil and water conservation practices (5 %).

This Report looks into how other indigenous communities are adopting strategies for adaptation in the face of climate change, with a focus on Namibia. 

 Sources-

E. Bryan, C. Ringler, B. Okoba, C. Roncoli, S. Silvestri, M. Herrero, 2012, Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: Household strategies and determinants.

Little, P.D., McPeak, J., Barrett, C., Kristjanson, P., 2008. Challenging orthodoxies: understanding pastoral poverty in East Africa. Development and Change.

Maddison, D., 2007. The Perception of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa. .

Nhemachena, C., Hassan, R., 2008. Determinants of African farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change: multinomial choice analysis. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Di Falco, S., & Veronesi, M. (2013). How Can African Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change? A Counterfactual Analysis from Ethiopia.

Kristjanson, P., Mango, N., Krishna, A., Radeny, M., Johnson, N., 2009. Understanding poverty dynamics in Kenya. Journal of International Development 22 (7), 978e 996.

All talk No Action?

Despite growing needs for agricultural adaptation to climate change, in the hopes that new technology and skills may aid in the mitigation of climate change, financial and political actions have been slow to emerge.

At the 15th FCCC Conference of the Parties (COP-15) in Copenhagen, negotiators established a text on agriculture, but no agreement was reached.  During COP-17, in Durban, many public figures called for action on agriculture including former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, South African President Jacob Zuma, former President of Ireland Mary Robinson, and Prime Minister of Ethiopia Meles Zenawi.  Over 500 people attended the third Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD) meeting, where crucial steps with the goal of preventing a future of climate-induced collapse of the food system, were discussed.  However, notwithstanding this clear call for action the outcome was somewhat lack luster.  The document produced being the “Durban Platform for Enhanced Action”, which commits parties to reach a legal framework for reducing global emissions by 2015. The only explicit agricultural agreement was to consider adopting a framework for “sectoral actions”, which could include those related to the agriculture sector.  A 5^th of March deadline was set by which parties must provide evidence for the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technology Advice (SBSTA) to “exchange views on agriculture”.  

Some view the events of COP-15 as a “welcome first step” though far smaller than what is required if a significant impact is to be made. Reasons for the modest progress i.e. lack of adoption of a formal program on agriculture, can be attributed to causes such as: the Variability in the vulnerability of nations to climate change, quantity to which countries contribute to international agricultural production and variation in the volume of green house gas emissions produced by agriculture between nations, to mention a few.  Furthermore, Some negotiators were concerned that technical challenges such as carbon monitoring by millions of farmers are too huge to develop agriculture agreements.

Largely the case is such that higher-income nations, agricultural organizations and the UN support an SBSTA woke program on agricultural adaptation and mitigation.  However, it is the low and middle-income nations who were less taken by the work program. 

 COP-18 held this time last year in Qatar was set to hold agriculture policy at the helm of it’s agenda, nonetheless, further debate and lack of agreement meant that again, no solid framework was agreed upon.  Largely differences of opinion seemed to stem from whether to include the role of agriculture in reducing  or mitigating  greenhouse gas emissions.

So How to Move Forward?

Beddington et al 2012 noted seven priorities identified by the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change in 2011, that should be strongly considered if we are ever going to move from all talk towards a solid policy action and achieve a “food-secure world” in the throws of climate change.  These seven priorities are as follows:

1.   Integrate food security and sustainable agriculture into global and national policies, including adaptation and mitigation;

2.   Increase global investment in sustainable agriculture and food systems;

3.   Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing emissions and other environmental impacts;

4.   Target programs and policies to assist vulnerable populations;

5.   Reshape food access and consumption to ensure that basic nutritional needs are met and to foster healthy and sustainable eating habits;

6.   Reduce food loss and waste across supply chains; and

7.   Create comprehensive information systems on human and ecological dimensions.

Some argue that food-security is one of the most pressing issues of the 21^st century and it is evident that immediate and coordinated effort is required. But what will it take to make the fish bite?

Sources-

Ingrid Öborn, Jan Bengtsson, Fredrik Heden, Lotta Rydhmer, Maria Stenström, Katarina Vrede, Charles Westin and Ulf Magnusson. (2013). Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach.

H. C. J. Godfray, J. Pretty, S. M. Thomas3, E. J. Warham, J. R. Beddington. (2011). Linking Policy On Climate and Food. Science. 331.

J. Bellarby, B. Foereid, A. Hastings, P. Smith, Cool Farming: Climate Impacts of Agriculture and Mitigation Potential (Greenpeace, Amsterdam, 2008).

Foresight, The Future of Food and Farming: Challenges and Choices for Global Sustainability. Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, London, 2011).